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中国三十强饲料企业的四大困惑

2018-09-21 12:50:56

中国(guo)三十强(qiang)饲料企业当前(qian)正处(chu)于(yu)如下四大(da)困惑(huo)之(zhi)中。一孔之(zhi)见,姑妄言(yan)之(zhi)。

Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.

一(yi)、本土(tu)化(hua)还是(shi)国际化(hua)之(zhi)惑

(Localization Internationalization)

以泰国(guo)正(zheng)大集团(tuan)为(wei)代(dai)表的(de)外资企(qi)(qi)业(ye)在中国(guo)开疆拓土取得巨大成(cheng)功;以希望集团(tuan)为(wei)代(dai)表的(de)本土企(qi)(qi)业(ye)在越南(nan)等国(guo)家攻城拔寨取得了卓(zhuo) 越成(cheng)就。事实告诉nba篮球直播在线观看,商业(ye)无(wu)国(guo)界(jie)。许多(duo)伟(wei)大企(qi)(qi)业(ye)的(de)发展历程证明,国(guo)门(men)之内无(wu)名企(qi)(qi)。

An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.

中国(guo)强大的(de)(de)过程现实(shi)上也(ye)必然(ran)伴随着资本(ben)、技术、市(shi)场的(de)(de)向外扩张(zhang),这刺激着中国(guo)饲料(liao)行业(ye)的(de)(de)领军(jun)企业(ye)跃跃欲(yu)试于(yu)国(guo)际化的(de)(de)发展。截然(ran)对立的(de)(de)观点(dian)则认为,中国(guo)是全(quan)世界有潜力的(de)(de)市(shi)场,本(ben)土企业(ye)国(guo)际化发展是舍近求远、舍本(ben)逐末,况且中国(guo)饲料(liao)企业(ye)无论是股(gu)东还是管理团(tuan)队的(de)(de)素养都达不到国(guo)际化的(de)(de)要求,盲目国(guo)际化无异于(yu)飞(fei)蛾扑(pu)火(huo)、自(zi)取灭(mie)亡。西谚有云:“离(li)家越(yue)远,离(li)失败越(yue)近。”

The successful growth development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises the will of shareholders management teams may yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating developing businesses far away the core, can lead to failure – as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away hometown, the closer to failure.” 

此争论(lun)(lun)旷日(ri)已久,难(nan)有结论(lun)(lun)。我(wo)的看(kan)法(fa)是中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)饲(si)料企业应该首先(xian)立足国(guo)(guo)内市场(chang),取(qu)得优势地位(wei)后放(fang)眼(yan)周边(bian),尤其是越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸(dian)、朝鲜、哈萨克斯(si)坦等(deng)邻(lin)国(guo)(guo)。对于(yu)印(yin)度(du)、俄罗(luo)斯(si)、韩国(guo)(guo)、日(ri)本等(deng)邻(lin)国(guo)(guo),市场(chang)虽大但进入(ru)难(nan)度(du)亦大,不宜投资。

In weighing the pros cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia.

二、专(zhuan)一化还是多元化之惑(huo)

(Focus Diversification)

尽管全世界(jie)大多数企业(ye)都(dou)是靠(kao)“诺基亚(ya)模式”即专业(ye)化经营,专注于唯 一选(xuan)定的(de)(de)(de)领(ling)域(yu)并取得成功;但也有如美国(guo)GE(通用电(dian)气(qi)公司)者横空出世,凭(ping)借多元化发展取得巨大成功。中国(guo)正处(chu)于由混沌初开向秩序井然(ran)的(de)(de)(de)成熟社会过渡的(de)(de)(de)时期,眼前活(huo)生生的(de)(de)(de)例(li)证(zheng)是:东方希望集团靠(kao)饲(si)料(liao)起家却(que)以电(dian)解(jie)铝行业(ye)成为(wei)中国(guo)私营企业(ye)的(de)(de)(de)翘(qiao)楚;新希望企业(ye)千军万马做饲(si)料(liao),而其Z 大的(de)(de)(de)收益却(que)来(lai)自不经意间(jian)投资入(ru)(ru)股的(de)(de)(de)银行业(ye)和房地产业(ye)。近年新希望依靠(kao)资本力量投资控股或(huo)入(ru)(ru)股多家农牧企业(ye),成为(wei)因多元化而成功的(de)(de)(de)鲜(xian)明案例(li)。

Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving a developing, volatile, informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, transparency. For instance,  East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed. 

今天的(de)中(zhong)国社(she)(she)会,政商(shang)关系密(mi)切,因一(yi)业(ye)兴(xing)旺而积累了(le)(le)足(zu)够资金和庞大(da)社(she)(she)会资源(yuan),从(cong)而更加有利于(yu)开展多元化的(de)经(jing)营。坚持(chi)专一(yi)化、抗拒(ju)多元化,Z 终才(cai)能走(zou)上成功之路(lu),是被全(quan)世(shi)界证明了(le)(le)的(de)经(jing)验(yan),但在中(zhong)国却(que)并不见得灵验(yan)。高(gao)度(du)专业(ye)化企业(ye)构成的(de)群体强大(da)而高(gao) 效,如:微(wei)软、IBM、英特尔因高(gao)度(du)分工(gong)、密(mi)切合作而令美国成为IT业(ye)霸主;而过(guo)度(du)庞杂的(de)巨头企业(ye),如日(ri)韩财团政商(shang)勾结虽使(shi)其崛起迅速(su),却(que)Z 终阻碍行业(ye)进步甚至危害社(she)(she)会的(de)公正。

Today, the relationship between government companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation distribution of wealth, social benefits, resources the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses industries, but these examples may be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors. 

多(duo)元化还是专(zhuan)一化关键取决于(yu)(yu)nba篮球直(zhi)播(bo)在线(xian)观看的(de)目(mu)标是无限扩大自身的(de)财(cai)富(fu)数量,还是愿意投身于(yu)(yu)nba篮球直(zhi)播(bo)在线(xian)观看喜欢的(de)事业、贡献于(yu)(yu)nba篮球直(zhi)播(bo)在线(xian)观看所生长的(de)国家。我(wo)倾向(xiang)于(yu)(yu)“有所为(wei),有所不为(wei)”。

The problems created by focus diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, becoming a leader within a particular industry sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.  

三(san)、专业化还是一(yi)体化之惑

(Specialization Integration)

专业(ye)(ye)化(hua)地把饲(si)料做(zuo)(zuo)精、做(zuo)(zuo)细、做(zuo)(zuo)大、做(zuo)(zuo)强是(shi)nba篮球(qiu)直播在线观看的(de)传(chuan)统,这一传(chuan)统首先在肉鸡产业(ye)(ye)上遇到(dao)挑战。全世(shi)界认同(tong)的(de)趋(qu)势是(shi),今(jin)后很(hen)难有单一的(de)商业(ye)(ye)化(hua)肉鸡饲(si)料生(sheng)产者, 而必须实(shi)行(xing)(xing)从育种到(dao)孵化(hua)、饲(si)料供应到(dao)防疫灭病、养殖(zhi)到(dao)屠宰再到(dao)肉品(pin)加(jia)工的(de)产业(ye)(ye)一体化(hua)经营。肉鸡业(ye)(ye)的(de)这一趋(qu)势是(shi)否(fou)也(ye)(ye)将推行(xing)(xing)到(dao)猪(zhu)、蛋鸡以及反刍(chu)动物生(sheng)产领域呢?美洲(zhou)的(de)一体化(hua)经营趋(qu)势十分明(ming)显(xian),以史(shi)密(mi)斯菲(fei)(fei)尔(er)德公司为(wei)代表(biao)的(de)“养殖(zhi)托拉斯式”的(de)企(qi)业(ye)(ye),规模巨大并完(wan)全左右(you)了市场(chang)价格,使得(de)畜牧业(ye)(ye)生(sheng)产更有计划性,但有垄断之虞。近年,史(shi)密(mi)斯菲(fei)(fei)尔(er)德公司业(ye)(ye)绩出现巨额亏损,说明(ming)该模式运行(xing)(xing)也(ye)(ye)并非完(wan)善。

The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production to increase complexity, enhance technology, improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention control, feeding, slaughtering, meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production operations obviously affect the market price should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model. 

如(ru)果中(zhong)国的(de)未来(lai)趋势走向一体化(hua),nba篮球(qiu)直(zhi)(zhi)播(bo)在(zai)线观(guan)看(kan)就必须(xu)主动转变——或(huo)(huo)自(zi)身形成完全产业(ye)(ye)链、或(huo)(huo)联合其他(ta)相关企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)完成一体化(hua)经(jing)营,尽(jin)管产业(ye)(ye)化(hua)经(jing)营风险(xian)巨(ju)大,但nba篮球(qiu)直(zhi)(zhi)播(bo)在(zai)线观(guan)看(kan)不得(de)不面(mian)对这个现实(shi)(shi)挑战。与北美相比,欧洲的(de)专业(ye)(ye)化(hua)色彩(cai)很浓。大量的(de)家庭农(nong)场(chang)(chang)适(shi)度规(gui)(gui)模地经(jing)营,政府并不鼓励扩(kuo)大养殖(zhi)规(gui)(gui)模,相反(fan)实(shi)(shi)行配额限制,专业(ye)(ye)的(de)饲料企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)、专业(ye)(ye)的(de)屠宰加工企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)与农(nong)场(chang)(chang)之间(jian)签订合约、各司(si)其职,政府通过(guo)政策直(zhi)(zhi)接(jie)干预畜牧业(ye)(ye)生产过(guo)程,把周(zhou)期性的(de)风险(xian)分化(hua)于不同(tong)生产环节和大量的(de)农(nong)场(chang)(chang),降低了生产风险(xian),缩短了危机时间(jian)。

In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, operating each component successfully synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations limited scales of operation, formal contracts with specialized feed companies specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises. 

我仍然认(ren)为欧(ou)洲的模(mo)式更适(shi)合中国国情,然而这(zhei)种(zhong)模(mo)式在(zai)欧(ou)洲能够发(fa)挥(hui)功效,第 一(yi)有(you)赖于一(yi)个(ge)专(zhuan)业(ye)(ye)化的畜牧(mu)业(ye)(ye)政府管理(li)部门(men),既(ji)能未雨绸(chou)缪地防范又能力挽狂(kuang)澜地制止;第 二(er)有(you)赖于一(yi)个(ge)高度(du)诚信的商业(ye)(ye)文化,各生产环节真 正让契约有(you)效执(zhi)行。

I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.

四(si)、私人化(hua)还是(shi)公众化(hua)之惑

(Private Public)

公(gong)司通过(guo)上市(shi)在(zai)资(zi)(zi)本市(shi)场筹集资(zi)(zi)金,成(cheng)为近年来(lai)中国(guo)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)的(de)流行做法。饲(si)料行业(ye)已有(you)(you)多(duo)家捷足先登者(zhe)。在(zai)中国(guo)不(bu)(bu)可思(si)议的(de)高(gao)(gao)市(shi)盈率的(de)资(zi)(zi)本市(shi)场环境下,这些(xie)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)一夜暴富,显著(zhu)地拉(la)开了(le)与同(tong)行之(zhi)间的(de)资(zi)(zi)本实力差距。股价虚高(gao)(gao)产(chan)生的(de)巨(ju)大诱(you)惑使(shi)得“上市(shi)”成(cheng)了(le)比追求经(jing)营质量的(de)提高(gao)(gao)更(geng)为有(you)(you)效的(de)创富手(shou)段,有(you)(you)些(xie)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)甚(shen)至不(bu)(bu)惜为此弄虚作假。

A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses taxes) assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth large gaps between listed unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities to commit outright fraud. 

nba篮球直播(bo)在(zai)线(xian)(xian)观看(kan)必须(xu)明白,企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)上(shang)市(shi)或曰公(gong)众化只是发展企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)一种手(shou)(shou)段,绝非经营(ying)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de);企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)众化也不(bu)是企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)发展的(de)(de)(de)(de)唯 一途径,对于很多企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)而言并不(bu)是Z 好的(de)(de)(de)(de)手(shou)(shou)段。德国(guo)宝(bao)马公(gong)司(si)、美国(guo)嘉吉公(gong)司(si)都是世界顶 尖的(de)(de)(de)(de)大企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye),他们却始终(zhong)保(bao)持着私(si)人企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)坏金(jin)身。企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)上(shang)市(shi)后将面临(lin)更(geng)严格的(de)(de)(de)(de)公(gong)众监督(du)和机构(gou)监管(guan), 同时也会(hui)显著提高企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)运营(ying)成本。而为了上(shang)市(shi)虚报业(ye)(ye)绩(ji)、编造项目(mu)可能会(hui)使这些(xie)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)Z 终(zhong)失去(qu)竞(jing)争力。在(zai)现实中国(guo)资本市(shi)场的(de)(de)(de)(de)虚高股价(jia)之(zhi)下,保(bao)持理性异乎(hu)寻常的(de)(de)(de)(de)艰难,但nba篮球直播(bo)在(zai)线(xian)(xian)观看(kan)必须(xu)实事求是。

But Chinese firms shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW Cargill are private holding companies well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements fabricate profit loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor pragmatist.

上述困惑之外(wai)以三(san)聚氰(qing)胺为(wei)代表的(de)(de)(de)食品安全(quan)事件,使饲料(liao)行业(ye)(ye)(ye)首当其冲(chong)成(cheng)(cheng)为(wei)众矢之的(de)(de)(de),监管(guan)力(li)度不断(duan)加大是政府方面矫(jiao)枉过正的(de)(de)(de)表现,更(geng)多行业(ye)(ye)(ye)管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)苛(ke)刻新规(gui)使得出(chu)现问题时(shi)政府可(ke)以不承(cheng)担(dan)任(ren)(ren)何(he)责任(ren)(ren),而由企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)完全(quan)承(cheng)担(dan)一切后果,这类(lei)似于商(shang)业(ye)(ye)(ye)活(huo)动(dong)中的(de)(de)(de)霸王条款,扼杀了企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)活(huo)力(li),降低了企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)竞争力(li),企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)显然不堪重负。此外(wai)随着人类(lei)活(huo)动(dong)的(de)(de)(de)增多,地球环境发(fa)生剧烈变化,生态(tai)系统趋于崩溃,动(dong)物疫病愈演(yan)愈烈,加之人们对卫生与安全(quan)的(de)(de)(de)苛(ke)刻要求和对疫病的(de)(de)(de)恐慌(huang)心理,使饲料(liao)及(ji)畜牧(mu)业(ye)(ye)(ye)缺乏稳定的(de)(de)(de)生存基础(chu),这个关系国计民生的(de)(de)(de)行业(ye)(ye)(ye)已经成(cheng)(cheng)为(wei)一个高(gao)危行业(ye)(ye)(ye)。

In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard deteriorating FSQS (food safety quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision regulation of the industry restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation red tape continue to worsen impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed livestock industries are under negative status have recently become even higher-risk businesses.

于2009年底

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